Insecurity and Support for Female Leadership in Conflict-Prone States: Evidence from Afghanistan

Does insecurity weaken or strengthen public support for female leadership in conflict-prone states? We answer this question with an original survey experiment conducted in the former Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRoA). The experiment primed some Afghan respondents with information about the country’s deteriorating security situation. It then assessed preferences for female leadership with a conjoint exercise requiring participants to rank and choose hypothetical leadership profiles. The insecurity prime dampened support for female leadership – but only among female respondents. We find suggestive evidence that the insecurity prime bolstered women’s preferences for male leaders with military experience. Nationally-representative survey data corroborate these patterns. These results suggest that women perceive a trade-off between female political representation and security. Interventions that expand women’s political representation in conflict-prone states may not garner women’s support without accompanying improvements in security.